Uncertainty
A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
- Authors:
- Millett Granger Morgan, Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania
- Max Henrion, Carnegie Mellon University, Pennsylvania
- Date Published: September 1992
- availability: Available
- format: Paperback
- isbn: 9780521427449
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The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.
Reviews & endorsements
'This book is a significant contribution to the exploration of the basic issues and constitutes an important addition to the technical literature addressing uncertainty.' Joseph Fragola, IEEE Spectrum
See more reviews'Uncertainty is a risk analysis textbook … written to serve as a basic text for students as well as a reference work for practitioners and researchers (it) succeeds both in providing an excellent basis for policy analysis and in drawing upon a variety of case studies that will be of interest to risk researchers.' Journal of Economic Literature
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×Product details
- Date Published: September 1992
- format: Paperback
- isbn: 9780521427449
- length: 346 pages
- dimensions: 229 x 152 x 20 mm
- weight: 0.49kg
- contains: 90 b/w illus. 22 tables
- availability: Available
Table of Contents
Preface
1. Introduction
2. Recent milestones
3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis
4. The nature and sources of uncertainty
5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation
6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty
7. Performing probability assessment
8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty
9. The graphic communication of uncertainty
10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis
11. Large and complex models
12. The value of knowing how little you know
Index.Instructors have used or reviewed this title for the following courses
- Environmental Risk Assessment
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